Brockley Bites: Sunday special

Bowled over

On one of our regular runs around Hilly Fields BC was thrilled to see that the Francis Drake Bowling Club has gone all arty and commissioned a wonderful new gate:


A definitely positive addition to Hilly Fields, we feel. Hope it was made by a local artist! Can any bowls-playing readers provide more detail?


Other Brockleys

BC has shamelessly stolen a great idea from local blogger the Greenwich Phantom and had a quick look at the location of other Brockleys around the world. Unlike Greenwich, however, there aren't too many to choose from. According to Wikipedia our main competitors are in Somerset and Suffolk.
The Somerset Brockley was the location of a 300-person prisoner of war camp during World War II, initially housing Italian prisoners and later Germans. There's a nearby Site of Special Scientific Interest involving greater horseshoe bats, and nearby is Brockley Combe, an area of fetching woodland - oh, and also the site of Bristol International Airport. Coleridge wrote a poem about it (the wood, not the airport).

By contrast, the Suffolk Brockley has little to boast of other than a locally-popular cricket team, and a bowls club. Perhaps the Francis Drake Club could organise a Brockley derby match?

113 comments:

because nick needs names or he gets confused said...

this gate looks totally out of style to me, if I put that on my front garden I'm sure the 'conservation area police' would throw the book at me. Dreadful, absolutely dreadful

Headhunter said...

Lovely, abolutely lovely. I agree with ya Nick, positive addition. Re other places called Brockley, there's a Brockley Hill in North London I think, there was almost a Tube station there on the Northern Line

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brockley_Hill_tube_station

APP&P Troll said...

Where is Brockley Whins???

A said...

I'm pretty sure there's a Brockley in Australia, possibly a neighbourhood in Sydney. In fact, just found it: http://www.domain.com.au/Public/SuburbProfile.aspx?searchTerm=Brockley&mode=research#mapanchor

A said...

I couldn't disagree more with 'Because Nick needs...'. Beautiful gate, a real moodlifter.

Anonymous said...

Indeed. That view is a little NIMBY (not in my back yard), or possibly even BANANA (build absolutely nothing near anyone) or even CAVE (citizens against virtually everything!) - and Brockley's certainly got a few of them!

brockley mutha said...

i like it too. And despite not being a bowling affecianado - I think that the green is one of the most charming spots on hillyfields. I spent an hour in their one afternoon, when the club was open - just sitting in the sun and watching the players, who were - without exception - extremely hospitable. That may have been because they were trying to recruit someone under 70. I'm curious as to why it's an old person's game.

APP&P Troll said...

its not a very strenuous game I guess...

brockley mutha said...

nor is nintendo

Tressilliana said...

The gates were designed by girls from Prendergast. I think they look very good.

spincat said...

Gates are charming.

Headhunter said...

Yes but Nintendo involves quick reflexes controlling characters on the screen (possibly hard for older people to see) with a fiddly little plastic control (not good if you've got arthritis)

Anonymous said...

I'd like to know if the bowling green falls within the conservation area, and, if it does, does it have to comply with the conservation area guidelines, and if a gate such as this is within that compliance, or will it come in under the wire for some other reason?

Only asking because if I choose to convert my loft at some time in the future and I wish to put a roof window on the *front* of my house (which may be denied as I live in the conservation area) the information might come in useful.

fabhat said...

I also like the gate - reminds me of 1930's children's books, and Rob Ryan paper cutouts...

APP&P Troll said...

I quite like the gate too! It's in-keeping with brockleys ever growing street art collection!

Lil said...

Anon, roof windows in front roof slopes is expressly prohibited in the brockley conservation area. (I also have a top-floor flat, on manor ave). not sure what a clever planning consultant or architect could argue for you, though.

lb said...

[Anon] I suggest you try and go for something usually referred to as a "heritage rooflight" - this may well get the planning application through (there are precedents). Be warned that the Brockley Society may well comment on the matter in their newsletter, using terms suggesting that the End Times are at hand.

As for the gate, it's OK if a bit naif (figures, if it was designed by schoolchildren). I assume the grey paint is just undercoat...everyone knows gates in parks should be dark green.

Headhunter said...

Even though the bowling green is in the conservation area a little iron gate like this hardly makes an impact on the area, whereas bolting some ugly window extension to the front elevation of a roof would be large and visible from far around!

I doubt the planning authorities will go for it even if you argue that the bowling green has erected a little iron gate! People all over the conservation area change gates, fences and front walls without any kind of permission.

The council, if it's concerned at all with the coinservation area, only seems to bother with big projects such as altering the front elevation of period homes, uPVC double glazing or building along the mews roads etc. I would oubt you have a case and the Broc Soc would probablybe all over.

I never really understand why people move to any kind of conservation area if they wish to make radical changes to buildings within it. If you wanted to radically alter the front of your building, why did you move there in the 1st place, knowing conservation restrictions have been in place since the mid 70s?

Better sell up and move outside any kind of conservation area where you can do more or less as you please.

lil said...

headhunter, she's talking about a rooflight -- that's a flat panel of glass, set flush with with the roof. Not a dormer, which would look odd & disruptive on a front roof slope, but which is allowed on the rear roof slope. (i'm not sure about side-slopes, on end-of-terraces; maybe that's one where a precedent has yet to be set).

A flat window (the 'heritage' variety specifically designed not to extrude at all from the roof line, even at the joins) is hardly visible for miles. The only potential down-side is light pollution, at night. by day it would be barely detectable from the street.

Anonymous said...

Headhunter

When moving into the area I don't think people are informed that they are moving into a conservation/BANANA area - I certainly wasn't.

Brockley Kate said...

I was; I got a council-produced booklet about the conservation area and what you can & can't do when I bought my house.

brockley mutha said...

@ anon 12.42 - I'm disgusted that the seller or estate agent from whom you purchased your flat didn't disclose the key selling point - that the property is in a highly desirable conservation area. Fie on them. Please tell me who the estate agents were so that I never use them?

Headhunter said...

Solicitors always mention whether a residence is in a conservation area or not - it comes up in the searches. I've bought and sold a couple of flats and each time the forms say "falls within a conservation area" or is "within 500 metres of a conservation area" or whatever.

Even my useless solictitor got that bit right, and they were seriously rubbish and I wouldn't wish them on anyone. If you didn't get all the searches done properly then your solicitor did a terrible job and you should complainto the Law Society and claim money back! Either that or perhaps you didn't read all the documentation thoroughly.

What I'm saying is I just don't understand people moving into a conservation area and then pushing at the boundaries of development and moaning when the council won't allow them to make, frankly, ugly additions.

Why move here in the first place? There's a huge area of non conservation area Brockley to play around with. Why do people have to mess about with an area of interest which has been picked out as worth preserving in near original form

Brockley Nick said...

@HH - a conservation area's rules shouldn't be so restrictive that they prevent people from making small, sensitive external alternations to their house without having to spend large amounts of money.

Again, it's all about balance.

Want to add a whopping extension, stone cladding or new bay windows to the front of your house? Jump through hoops.

Want to create more living space and add natural light to an old victorian house by adding simple, flat panel windows to your house, barely visible from the roadside and perfectly inoffensive? Should be relatively straightforward.

Tom said...

caveat emptor springs to mind ...

Headhunter said...

They're certainly not very restrictive in Brockers, there are satellite dishes plastered all over the place and plenty of other rules are blatantly ignored. I agree that if done sympathetically, these heritage windows (or whatever they're called) may be quite sensitive. Never seen one so I don't know.

My rant was more general and aimed at people who move into the area with plans to make big changes and try to push at the council to grant these applications.

And to claim that anyone who doesn't want these changes is NIMBY/CAVE/BANANA etc etc etc after buying a flat without reading the documentation deserves to have any applications refused

Anonymous said...

God things have got dull on here.
Nick- is there any chance you can start locking threads that get either a. too dull, or b, when people get abusive?

And before anyone suggests that conservation area rules are not dull to everyone, i suggest they examine every detail of their life and address where it all went wrong.

Headhunter said...

Hmmm, if it's all so dull perhaps stop reading or posting? Why waste your time?

lb said...

[Anon] Yes, yes, but this is exactly what happens in a quietish suburb like this. Planning rules get enforced; a wall falls over; people talk about house prices. What sort of excitement were you expecting exactly? A hostage situation?

Headhunter said...

Exactly LB, this is Brockley not the Gaza Strip. Anon, what would you rather discuss?

Anonymous said...

We had one of those on Upper Brockley Road a few years back - it got very quiet when the police cordoned off Malpas Road preventing traffic - bliss.

Anonymous said...

It is important sometimes to pay attention to small things. Arundhati Roy wrote a book on this subject. The beauty of the conservation area is the aesthetic harmony. When you look down wide tree lined streets on a sunny day its a pretty amazing sight in humble south east London.

It is a good thing that we have people that care about the beauty of the area and their work and care largely uncredited is an act of unconscious kindness to the people that will follow and live in these houses. They too will be able to enjoy what we did.

lb said...

Frankly I'm amazed that an estate agent could have sold someone a flat in the Conservation Area without mentioning the words "conservation area" at least, oh, several thousand times. Believe me, these people start to visibly salivate whenever the phrase crops up.

Nice sentiment about improving things for those who live here in the future, Anonymous - not that anyone will actually be able to afford a house, mind you. Still, I'll try my best to keep the facade of my cardboard-walled shanty looking as original as possible....

Monkeyboy said...

Interesting that the 'house price' discussions have dried up now that things actually do like they are set for a downward trend? The lady sat nest to me bought a Grade II listed building in Harogate for £650k in February with the idea of renting out until she retires so she can move in. She lives with her partner and is selling her old place to help bankrole it.

The Harogate place is not renting and she can't flog her place in Crouch End.

She's looking a bit stressed - has 2.5 mortgages to support!

Monkeyboy said...

Interesting that the 'house price' discussions have dried up now that things actually do like they are set for a downward trend? The lady sat nest to me bought a Grade II listed building in Harogate for £650k in February with the idea of renting out until she retires so she can move in. She lives with her partner and is selling her old place to help bankrole it.

The Harogate place is not renting and she can't flog her place in Crouch End.

She's looking a bit stressed - has 2.5 mortgages to support!

lb said...

People are mortgaged up to the ears right now - they're about to experience the downside of the orgy of cheap credit we've seen in the past few years.

Headhunter said...

Yeah but it'll all bounce back, especially in London where demand always exceeds supply. Even now there are reports of rents rising as everyone pulls out of buying whilst the market declines. And so goes the cycle, rents'll rise making buy-to-let attractive again, leading to increase in prices etc etc.

Of course there may be a recession slap in the middle of this which won't help, as with the credit crunch and lack of liquidity in lending but in the end prices in London won't exactly spiral out of control.

Look at all the residential building developments still going on. I walked from Brockers to E Dulwich on Sun and passed several and a couple had signs saying "more sites required". Obviously the building trade is not expecting to have to baton down the hatches in the long term. Oops, sorry I've started a house price discussion...

Monkeyboy - you've already abandoned your "official" blog name

lb said...

I actually think that the worst of the credit crunch is still to come; demand in London may have some stability, but the repercussions of the current financial situation go well beyond the value of housing stock (which in any case is still overvalued, especially with respect to rents). Still, I'm a pessimist.

Monkeyboy said...

Only having a sneaky post - should be working but I'm feeling ground down the system.

Brockley Kate said...

I note the house for sale on Hilly Fields Crescent has gone from 'for sale' to 'sold' within a couple of weeks. Of course it doesn't mean much til the contracts are exchanged, but still, I found it heartening.

Lil said...

i'm feeling ground down by LB. (Unintentional,i'm sure. i'm the person who needs to rent out their flat.. and cover the mortgage)

The Cat Man said...

LB, i odnt understand your point. Rental yields are increasing.

lb said...

Oh, I think given existing rent levels round there that you'll easily cover your mortgage with a flat in the Conservation Area - and have a bit of money to spare as well.

Don't mind me, the weather's not improving my mood today.

Headhunter said...

Along Manor Ave there are few places with sold signs outside and only a couple for sale, so things are just about still shifting. I even had one of those leaflets from an estate agent the other day saying a client of theirs is specifically looking in our street and would like to make an offer blah, blah, blah.

Who knows if we're through the worst of it, the sub prime crisis is largely a US led problem where banks lent trillions of Dollars to low income family to buy houses in bad areas like the rust belt.

In London with a shortage of housing I expect (hope and pray!) that the effect will not be long lived

The Cat Man said...

HH, I get one of those leaflets on average every 3-4 weeks. Got one last week too.

I think we will see the effects of the credit crisis 'trickle' through the ecoonmy for the next 2 years at least. We won't neccessarily see a recession, but things will be much more sub-dued.

lb said...

[The Cat Man] Well, I'm sure we can all breathe easy then, given that the supply of credit is drying up, there's been a spike in basic commodity prices, there's uncertainty in the labour market, the large funds are gambling on stupidly high oil prices, and our economy closely tracks that of the US (which is no especially healthy state).

I'm not saying that things will necessarily collapse into the kind of Mad Max-style dystopia that the Brockley Society keeps warning us about whenever a new extension is approved, but I don't think plaintively saying that "rental yields are increasing" is a reason to break out the Krug.

Anyway, I think the general financial climate should mean that rents won't increase that sharply.

Anonymous said...

I'm glad people aren't able to support multiple houses any more. 'Renting out' appeals to the sort of person who wants to make the most money by doing the least to earn it - and dries up the market for people who want to buy for themselves. Lazy, lazy landlords.

Tom said...

rentals are likely to remain broadly static because of net migration into London is likely to sag as the finance boom ends.

however, London's housing market is incredibly local, making trend-spotting very difficult.

for example, in my experience rental prices have been stable in SE4 for four years.

worth noting also that prices are set by transactions, meaning that in a thin market supply/demand factors trump intrinsic value arguments.

Anonymous said...

I think its fair to say that the Indian person's family were better off. With the UK/India exchange rate, I would assume that to buy 5 houses the Indian family must be very well off indeed as the Rupee is still weak.

Similarly there are some indigenous British people who can buy houses and some who can't (like me). Am I being displaced by my white brothers?

When I went to college some people had cars and some didn't. I had a return ticket for the bus. That's life!

Headhunter said...

Does finance really account for that much in the rental/housing market? I suppose it might, but there's a lot of business in London outside finance.

Andy, the problem with restricting the housing market to British passport holders only with current conditions in place, is that it would surely push the market into a crash as possibly millions are suddenly excluded. Not very fair to people who have already bought, British or otherwise, who would see values spiral.

Not to mention ideological issues with limiting any market on the basis of nationality.

Tom said...

it's not truth, it's your (political) opinion.

back to house prices - the argument that rent will go up because the volume of house sales have gone done depends on the assumption that the number of house moves is constant.

However, there are two easily guessable reasons why this is not so:
- house price increases over the last decade could be easily 'crystallised' by selling property, so house sales increased in number. the opposite will now occur.
- the boom in london drew in many people from across the UK, Europe and elsewhere, driving up prices in many areas, from rich to poor. In fact, such transient areas (SE London in particular, as well as Chelsea etc) saw more volatility than most.

I think economists call it demand elasticity.

Puzzled? said...

It may be the truth Andy, but it's not the whole truth, the whole picture. I don't understand why global forces that we are all subject to are always reduced to issues of race and nationality. What is going on there Andy?

I mean if we're going to go down the anecdotal analysis route in looking at economic activity, I'm sure the people in Provenance feel a similiar way to you Andy, about Brits buying up the place. My neighbour is doing up a an old farm house.
We all know about British buying property in Spain, why aren't these factors in your analysis

Tom said...

No.

Headhunter said...

Tom - At the moment there does not appear to be a huge number of properties on the market, I think most people are holding off selling for the time being for obvious reasons. This may hold prices in the short term at least. I suppose that may not last if we head into recession and as more people come off low fixed rate mortgage deals

The Cat Man said...

"the argument that rent will go up because the volume of house sales"

Not sure who made this argument, I was talking about rental yields and house prices not house sales.

'rental yield' is also very different to 'rental income'.

Not sure we are on the same wave length tom......

Tom said...

Yeah, i think you're right HH, the market has got very thin, with only the mad, bad and sad out there.

However, the mainstream/retail market is legendarily slow to get the message when markets change, and it is likely that it'll take until the end of the year before all buyers and sellers realise how far down the market could go.

Interesting to see Panorama last night spelling out the ABC of a regime switch.

It was cringingly patronising but suspect that it was still educational for many that believed buying a house was a one-way bet.

Headhunter said...

I can understand your sentiment but I think it's hard to legislate to defend as changeable and intangible as "lifestyle" and "values". These will change with the wind whether we increase, decrease of stop immigration. Britain does not exist in a cultural bubble

Anonymous said...

Not odd if you consider that you're welcome to do the same in most other places (visa permitting, of course, which I assume the Indian gent had)

Monkeyboy said...

Can I just apologise to all. I was just making idle chit chat about my chum over reaching herself mortgage wise. Didn't mean to give a reason for paranoid ramblings about the erosion of our 'identity'

(a friend of mine sold up his house in Fulham at it's crazy peak and bought a big house in Sydney, thereby inflating Sydney house prices no doubt. Does it make it less bad because he's a white Anglo Saxon? as opposed to Vietnamese say? Sorry, couldn't help myself...)

Tom said...

Hmmmm Vietnamese ... absolutely loving Love You Longtime take-outs at the moment!

(Of course, I am mortified by these foreigners coming over here forcing their tasty food on us ...)

Ironically, those that hate foreigners the most tend to move abroad to live in ethnically/nationally pure ex-pat communities. I'm not sure if they get the irony.

Anonymous said...

Brigitte and 'The Cat' - you never see them in the same place at the same time? Could they be one and the same person?

Anonymous said...

Sigh... I'll try that again The wise crack has lost some of it's impact but whatever

Anonymous said...

CAT MAN. APPP

Get over it.

Your Indian 'friend' isn't doing anything illegal. If he can afford it well then that's capitalism baby. I have a house in France. I don't live there but I like France. I like going there every year and want my own place there. Nothing wrong with that. Hundreds of Brits do it. Is it really jealosy that you haven't got a career that can afford you such luxuries? (You also seem to be hung up on the conservation area in previous posts)

Life's not fair pal and in my experience you're better off looking after your own affairs than getting hung up on what others are doing.

Tom said...

My family's motto is "Manners Maketh Man", as such I try to avoid being rude and making matters personal.

However, when someone openly invites comments about their personality, the temptation is to take them up on it. But then I take a deep breath and remember that feeding trolls on the internet is the worst thing you can do.

lb said...

Given that the British screwed India out of its natural resources for at least 250 years of recent history, I have no problem with the odd house going to an overseas buyer. Let's face it, half of the entire Indian sub-continent's overrun with braying UK trust-funders 'finding themselves' these days, so it goes two ways.

Monkeyboy said...

My parents are both Italians, didn't speak the language - still not perfect after 50 years here. Bought a house, my mum emptied bed pans for years, they have no doubt made England a little more Mediterranean and a little less British. What's the problem?

I find your views ill thought out, ignorant and plain insulting. That enough for you? You seem to assume that any new comer that isn't a white Christian monarchist is automatically negative?

I'll leave it to others to point out that your arguments may be superficially about economics or jobs but soon reveal you xenophobia .

Anonymous said...

Well said Monkeyboy.

The Cat Man said...

@Anon.

I'm a higher rate tax payer thank you very much.

Monkeyboy said...

Nope, still don't understand. Guess It's me then, you win.

Anonymous said...

Well done you.

max said...

APPP, don't you work on Tuesdays?
It's a Polish, Italian and Punjabi tradition to actually do some work during office hours.
I was of the opinion that it was an English tradition too, but maybe it's not one of those that you cherish.

Anonymous said...

Lol thanks for that Max. It's just too easy sometimes

Anonymous said...

It does sound quite tasty.

Monkeyboy said...

That, ladies and gentlemen, kind off settles the argument.

Not a sophisticated, subtle discourse on politics and the flow of money in a globalised world, but rather yuck! they eat cats!

This is Monkeyboy, signing off.

Anonymous said...

I fear that precedent has already been set - I have my suspicions about some of the local takeaways (especially outside of the conservation zone)

Anonymous said...

Andy, this girlfriend you claim to have. Is she made of bits of other people's skin?

The Cat Man said...

Thats abit weird anon, why do you say that?

Anonymous said...

APPP
There is nothing inherently wrong with eating cats. It's just a cultural difference. I've eaten Guinea Pig in Peru - (was quite nice) and horse in France - it was okay. Both of which we choose not to do in this country but that doesn't make it wrong. Cats are animals like cows, pigs and sheep. Some cultures across the globe wouldn't ever dream of eating cows and pig. Just because we've chosen to domesticate certain cats in this country doesn't make their flesh any less tasty to eat.

Anonymous said...

You need a History lesson my friend. 'What is British 'has never been a fixed entity at any point throughout time. British values change. And those values evolve through migration. The Saxons brought a few choice phrases with them that weren't particularly British but we happily use them now. I seem to remember the Romans taught us a few things too.
I personally wouldn't care if we started eating cats in this country. I doubt it will happen for the next 50 years but who knows. What are you so afraid of?

Anonymous said...

For someone who claims to be British I would say that Andy has conducted himself in a very un-British way with some of his comments on this blog.

Anonymous said...

I'd love some moist chunks of kitten on a fork

Anonymous said...

CORRECTION - Malaysia IS really nice. Typo.

Anonymous said...

I guess what Andy is saying is that, whilst he's cool with it on the grand scheme of things, he'd find it unusual or be uneasy at seeing someone shave off lumps of tabby to go with a box of chips in Morley's or Gulen Kebab on a Friday night - or to even have a selection of sliced and cured toms available at Dandelion Blue. I think that's a pretty fair comment.

Anonymous said...

Is it likely to happen.

brockley mutha said...

@ app&p aka cat man - strom thurmond 'dated' a black woman.

Monkeyboy said...

Mmmm....High Horse... does that come with fries?

brockley mutha said...

Tom said...
Can we please ignore APPP's provocative last comment?



Appp turns everything into a rant about race and immigration. Tom is right - we must ignore him. If we don't he will undo everything that Tom, Nick and Kate have achieved and this blog will simply become a platform for the reactionary views of one member of the Brockley community.

Anonymous said...

Amazingly two of the most popular threads on this blog of late have been on a bookies opening and a lovely park gate. And STILL some people are persuing the 'conservation area' angle... bloody jobsworths. They probably work behind a service desk somewhere.

Tressillian James said...

Anon - don't quite understand your point? I'm probably not following but could you expand?

lb said...

I still don't quite understand how we got from house prices to eating cats.

Horse is actually OK, if you can put up with its rather strong flavour - not sure I could eat a whole one though.

jon s said...

For an economists answer on house prices:

1. They are overvalued by 40%, that is hyperinflation and the real cause for any crash.
2. What allowed house prices to get out of hand was the global economy getting more efficient.
- China makes things cheap, low inflation (lowering interest rates)
- Surpluses caused by this efficiency (mainly through comodities to build china and services to integrate the economy) were reinvested in the market producing easy money.


Now, where are we:

1. Easy credit is gone, pushing up interest rates.
2. Although fixed in the short run (it takes time to sell a house and for the city to realise the extent of bad debt and inflation which pushes up interest rates), prices are falling.

What will happen?

- Over 5 years house prices wll fall by 40% in real terms
- However, inflation will be 20% over 5 years, so prices will fall by 20%

The "soft landing" people hope for is flat prices for 10 years allowing inflation to catch up to current values. Based on the structure of the UK economy, I doubt this will happen.

However, for Brockers in particur it looks good in the long run. The ELL and other surrounding developments will improve the area, increasing the relative value.

Remember recessions are useful, the remove inefficienty and froth from the economy (e.g. all the pointless luxuries we don't need, daily, coffee, etc.). What government needs to do is consider people first.

lb said...

Thanks for that, that puts the matter pretty neatly.

It should also be added that (in addition to increased efficiencies in the global economy) the aftermath of September 11 2001 and of the earlier crash in technology stocks also had a hand in stimulating the boom - interest rates were lowered by many central banks within a short period to try and encourage stability.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Jon S - but I work in an invetsment bank and your analysis is pure speculation on your part without any founding. Do you work as an Economist or did you study Economics? You won't find anyone credible in the City suggesting that there will be a 40% fall and then 10 years of flat prices.

I also think to suggest recessions are good as they take the froth out of the market and take away the pointless luxuries is niave. Recessions are damaging - they are not 'market corrections' - but lead to hardship, job losses, and anxiety. I think you'll find that there are many in this country and Brockley, who own their home, but don't have the luxuries in life already.

Finally the UK is not in recession: it may get to that point, it may never get to that point; but no working Economist would use the term so lightly. By all means tell us your opinion, but if you have just studied Economics, please also state so.

lb said...

I suspect the 40% figure is traceable to comments made by the head of the Invesco Perpetual Income fund, Neil Woodford.

lb said...

...which were fairly widely reported, I hasten to add (usually with the caveat that Woodford is known to be a cautious manager).

Danja said...

... back in 2004 ...

Brockley Kate said...

Can I recommend Hometrack for data, analysis and projections? They're really very good and come up with some interesting stuff.

www.hometrack.co.uk

jon s said...

Hi investment bank anon

I never stated that there will be a 40% fall and 10 years of flat prices (That would be a 60-70% fall), merely prices are 40% over valued. So I predict they will fall 20% in 5 years (40% factoring in inflation). If we manage a soft landing instead they will be flat for 10 years.

- The 40% figure is based on the difference between house price inflation and general inflation, hence the term "hyperinflation"

- Technically, a recession is two quarters of negative growth, we are not there yet, but will be. (I know this is not a fashionable thing to say).

- No recessions are not nice, market corrections and retrating economies never are. I have full sympathy (and want the government to intervene) for people; retraining, etc.

I would love a soft landing to happen but cannot see it with the structural conditions in the UK..

BTW, The city laughed off Krugman when he predicted the Asian Economic Crisis........

We are getting way off topic, so I won't continue this further and I am sure we will agree to disagree, but let's avoid ad hominum.

Best

Jon

lb said...

[Danja] Yes, but Woodford has consistently stated both at the time and since then that housing stock is overvalued and there must, at some point, be a fall to correct this. And it was always most likely to happen when credit finally dried up, which happens to be about now.

Anonymous said...

I see that some comments have been deleted in this here thread, you could say that Nick laid down the claw!
Cat Man it's time for you to apologise for creating drama, come on Hiss and make up time!

Tom said...

Jon, don't worry about going off topic - at least we aren't wittering about that god-awful-man's obsessions.

I think the 40% figure of house price falls is speculation. Your assumption that house price inflation must somehow meet RPI ('real') inflation is interesting but I wouldn't stake anything on it.

The drivers for house price inflation over the last decade are complex and in places self-referential, meaning that any absolute measures are largely meaningless.

That said, as long as central banks continue bailing out the financial system with huge dollops of liquidity, excessive asset inflation may yet continue.

jon s said...

this is definately my last post on housing prices!!

Actually, my analyis isn't just linked to RPI, but the AEI (Average Earnings Index) and the the P/E (Price/Earning) ratio of housing.

My view of the factors that limit aggregate supply of money (for housing), hence aggregate demand (for housing) including MPC interest rates, companies, influx of foreign capital, etc. is that they only influence in the short run, hence my five year timeline.

How it get's there I don't know a 40% drop in 2 years, to a 4% drop per annum for 5 years???

If you think about it, a 20% fall in the sticker price of housing over 5 years isn't that high and we will be paid 15-20% more. I expect higher interest rates though.

Anyhoo, eveyone wants a one armed economist; so we can't say and on the other hand...

The Cat Man said...

jon, did you factor in structural changes? I'd be interested to understand how, its pretty hard to get meaningful data from my experience!

Tom said...

Interesting arguments Jon but I still think that it's all speculation, informed though it clear is.

I'm a thorough believer that most rationality in economics suffers fatally from hindsight bias ('looking in the rear-view mirror to drive forwards') and the future is inherently unknowable and chaotic in its direction ('black swans').

Orthodox economists tend to muddy the water through the Almighty Power of the Chart, which assures these professionals that they aren't in the business of guesswork and gambling.

See Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness (if you haven't already!).

Headhunter said...

Going back to cats, I wish someone would eat the bastard cats on Manor Avenue. Last night 2 of the a-hole creatures sat under my bedroopm window screeching at each other for no apparent reason. I had to get up at 3am and go into the front garden to shoo them away. I swear if I had had an air pistol to hand, I would have been sorely tempted....

Anonymous said...

Headhunter, easy on the expletives.

Headhunter said...

Sorry

jon s said...

Of course all forward looking economic analysis is speculative:)

Why do you think all academic journals only publish historic data.

Danja said...

LB, that's no doubt right - but since his 2004 prediction, (London) house price inflation was 10.7%, 13.2% and 13.5% (a compound of over 40% increase).

So does he view them as being nearly 60% overvalued now?

I'm not saying they aren't overvalued, clearly they are going to drop quite a way. I just don't think that particular prediction is worth a pinch of salt any more.

jon s said...

Man, it has to be said. Some prole only open their mouth to replace the foot they have in there...

Do dah said...

Andy -The Cat Man just enjoy this blog for what it is. It isn't a forum to vent our political frustrations, maybe perhaps some of us do this now and again in specific political threads but this thread was about a gate that a kind gentleman and his daughter gave to to our community.

You have made your views on temporary immigration and the erosion of british identity quite clear, over the weeks and months now.

I and probably many others get the picture but if you feel the need to continue to express these views, rather than wind up your fellow commenters, use your own blog. You have that facility now, you can be the master of your own domain there.

Some of your racial remarks have been unnecessary and they have been dealt with accordingly, expunged if you will, so in effect you have a clean slate, so let's move forward now.

Best wishes to you

Graeme said...

Back to local house price chatter (sorry - can't be arsed to find a more relevant thread..)

According to Zoopla.com and their fancy-pants valuation algorithms, my 1 bed has apparently increased in value by 7k in the last week (hooray!), thus putting my purchase of a 2 bedder even further out of reach (boo!).

Everything else being equal an' all.

swishyhair said...

Hello to p troll.

Brockley Whins is in South Shields in the north east of England. It's where I spent the first 19 years of my life.

Film Director Ridley Scott was born in South Shields, Muhammad Ali had his marriage blessed there and the lifeboat was invented there.

I don't go back there very often, I couldn't wait to get out when I was a teenager, but with the passage of time I appreciate it a lot more.

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