KFH: Demand outstripping supply in Brockley

Estate Agents KFH are continuing to push Brockley in their analysis of the London property market. Their latest press releae, issued today, says Brockley's popular with first-time buyers and demand is outstripping supply...

Chris Early, Sales Manager at Kinleigh Folkard & Hayward’s Brockley branch comments:

“The property market here has remained strong over the last four weeks. We have seen the
lower end of the market pick up with sellers and buyers below £200,000 being very eager.

“First time buyers are loving Brockley at the moment, mainly because of its great prices and
great transport links. Buyers are becoming increasingly aware that they may have missed
their chance to buy at the lowest point of the market.

“Prices are beginning to rise in Brockley, sealed bids are back and every new instruction we
take on is rising in price. Stock is moving very quickly, and with interest rates still low, it is
unlikely that there will be a large influx of properties coming onto the market. Demand
will still outweigh supply for some time yet.”

58 comments:

fred vest said...

with interest rates still low, it is
unlikely that there will be a large influx of properties coming onto the market


estate agents & non-sequiturs, there's a thing you don't often see

Anonymous said...

mmmmm this estate agent is very optimistic. a good majority of the properties still being advertised for sale have been on the market for more than one year? those that have sold must have seen big price reductions in many of the properties.

fred vest said...

"mmmmm this estate agent is very optimistic"

an estate agent for a particular area being optimistic about the housing market in that particular area, i don't believe that's ever happened before

Anonymous said...

I'm sad, I thought this post was about a new KFC opening in Brockley :(

Anonymous said...

A nice story about Steve bullock being optimistic about central lewisham or promoting the preservation of historic buildings within the borough would be nice.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone want to buy my house?

I said...

I don't know. Put it on the market at a price somebody is willing to pay and the answer will be yes.

*trying to refrain from saying 'dur!' but failing*

mintness said...

Buyers are becoming increasingly aware that they may have missed their chance to buy at the lowest point of the market.

Yeuch. Whether the recovery happens now (it's not) or in a couple of years (it might), it's reassuring to know that weasely estate agent-speak will be there to guide us along the way.

Anonymous said...

fred, how is that a non-sequitur? Low interest rates mean that people can afford to hold on to properties they don't need as primary residences. Or to properties which are bigger than they need.

You'll see as rates go up in a year or two how many people will rush to sell houses where they can no longer afford the mortgage.

patrick1971 said...

If KFH is selling properties so quickly, why has their window display barely altered in the last two months?

The Cat Man said...

KFH sold a house on my street with it only being on the market for 4 days just last week! The owners had 4 offers in that time, and the price sold was at the 2007 average.

I don't think prices are going to go down any more. The only way is up.

mintness said...

There's no need to bother with making a pretty window display for the browsing plebs when your properties are selling themselves. Sometimes before they're even on the market!

Hugh said...

I don't suppose the agent's bullishness has anything to do with his personal financial situation.

Tressillian James said...

Of course the agents are going to be bullish - but just take a walk down Tressillian road, and you can see sold boards everywhere. Also new properties are being put on the market. These aren't the same old properties finally selling either. Houses are going on the market and selling in month or so - which is very different from earlier this year.

However, I would like to see if this is sustained into the winter - and I also think that perhaps the recession hasn't hit us as hard as it is going to. The banks are over the worst - but the effects are just starting to filter down to some industries. Those who have fought off cutting back staff may not be able to much longer as contracts continue to dwindle. If interest rates do go up then we may see the markets shuddering to a halt again.

Crofton Parker said...

It's a very bloody annoying time to be trying to buy, writing as someone who is trying.

My problem has been the sellers, hanging on and on and on and refusing to exchange on a property they accepted my offer on back at the start of FEB.

They seem to be desperately waiting for signs the market really is rising, so as to un-accept the offer and try for more cash. And apparently that's happening quite a bit these days.

Those Sold signs might be good news for sellers but they are bitter irony for us buyers, because they don't quite mean what they say. "Mine" has been wearing a sold sign since it was snowing, and it still hasn't actually been sold to me. Oh the bitterness.

Anonymous said...

Estate Agents. First against the wall come the glorious day!

Headhunter said...

Things are definitely on the up. You don't want to pay much attention to websites, decent properties that have been sold for many months often get left on sites like Rightmove and Findaproperty for publicity purposes, I learned that when I was looking for my current place.

As I've said before, my neighbour had an offer on his flat on Manor Ave within 40 hours of it hitting the market and the sale went through. The previously derelict building on Manor Ave that Nick reported about a year ago as the longest derelict building in Brockley was converted into flats which went onto the market about 3 weeks ago, now they're all sold (by KFH). Friends of mine near Richmond sold their flat before it was even registered with an estate agent.

There are still properties hanging around but that was true even in the boom times, there's often something wrong with them - either the owners are hanging out for asking price, there is damp or the lease is very low etc etc.

Hugh said...

Who is worse, the estate agent or the grasping vendor (aka all of us)? It's Biblical, G. It was all in Joseph's Technicolour Dreamcoat. What it is.

fred vest said...

"fred, how is that a non-sequitur? Low interest rates mean that people can afford to hold on to properties they don't need as primary residences. Or to properties which are bigger than they need.
You'll see as rates go up in a year or two how many people will rush to sell houses where they can no longer afford the mortgage."

because it's a simplistic reductionist view on things that reduces everything to the relation between two things - interest rates and supply of homes

the supply of homes for sale onto the market at the moment is constricted due to people unwilling to sell at what they believe is an undervalued price (even though at the moment the house price/earnings multiple, despite the recent falls in house prices, is still at an historical high suggesting a continued/persistant overvaluation) or not wanting to make their negative equity permanent. this is exacberated by a lack of supply of mortgage finance and overly onerous deposit terms - both of which combined, despite low base rates, makes mortgage finance either unobtainable or overly expensive for potential buyers - this in turn obviously leads to the lack of activity that is seen at the moment (compounded by fear of unemployment/reduced income amongst first time buyers adding another barrier to actvity and removing the traditional injection of liquidity/activity into the base of the pyramid) This situation also renders any conclusions drawn (at a macro level) about house prices at present pointless as the pool of activity in this area is too thin and illiquid to extrapolate on any meaningful basis to a wider scale - making the recent euphoria in the press about recent house price rises and the inference that this means something in terms of the wider econonomy also pointless

When banks do start to lend more widespread again and on more 'accessible' terms, either through brute force of the state or in the desperate search for increased yields that got us into the mess in the first place, then that flow will result in a load of more properties coming onto the market hoping to capture a share of that new money (and the house price rises that it brings with it). All of this is more than capable of happening without a change in interest rates and indeed will be actively encouraged to happen by the keeping of interest rates low for long enough to cement the foundations of another bubble

Additionally, interest rates have been at near historic lows for most of this decade which has coincided with a huge level of activity in the supply and purchase of homes, so to suggest that low interest rates in and off themselves are a barrier to the supply of homes onto the market is not only blind to the unique circumstances of the present, but also that of the past.

also your example of low interest rates meaning that people can hold onto homes that they don't actually need or are too big for them seems like an edge case at best and not exactly one that reflects the circumstances of the average home owner from which an economic hypothesis can be built

M said...

I bet you're glad you asked...

Anonymous said...

Decent properties are selling within weeks if not days at the moment, and going for very close to asking price as supply is so low and nobody selling is in a hurry to do so. I know, I've just bought one.

Headhunter said...

It's actually a very good time to sell if you're trading up, assuming you believe that prices have reached their lowest.

If you're selling a flat at, say, £250k and looking for a house at perhaps £500k, if you wait a few months or a year you may find prices have risen by 10%. So you could get £275k for your flat, so £25k more than previously, however the house you were looking to buy has now jumped by £50k in the same period, leaving you out of pocket. When prices are low or falling, it's a good time to trade up.

Of course this assumes that prices increase by the same percentage across London or indeed nationally, but assuming you're simply upgrading in the same area (like Hugh apparently) it holds true.

Hugh said...

Upgrade locally? We shippin out, g. Got to the Brox early doors to lock in some nice gains. Now to capitalise and get fragrant in middle-class surburbia, yeh?

Headhunter said...

Hugh, you went on about moving to Ealing a while back, but since then have been going on about "7 bedders on Wickham Rd". Which is it to be?!

Hugh said...

Cator Est8 m8. Who said bonuses were dead?

Headhunter said...

Over in Blackheath? So the Ealing or 7 bedder on Wickham dream is dead?

fred vest said...

"It's actually a very good time to sell if you're trading up, assuming you believe that prices have reached their lowest.

If you're selling a flat at, say, £250k and looking for a house at perhaps £500k, if you wait a few months or a year you may find prices have risen by 10%. So you could get £275k for your flat, so £25k more than previously, however the house you were looking to buy has now jumped by £50k in the same period, leaving you out of pocket. When prices are low or falling, it's a good time to trade up."

all great in theory, but in reality given that to get a half decent mortgage rate at the moment you need a deposit of around 30-40%, that means having to have nearly £200k available cash to do this, highly unlikely that this will come from equity in the £250k flat your selling even in the best times let alone these times. so if you're already minted or rely on mater & pater then great, but all this tells us that money comes to money

on and on and on and on said...

Hugh - you've been 'shipping out' ever since I joined this blog.Do you have an actual completion date - or are u really a second tier lawyer who can't actually affoard their aspirations?

Anonymous said...

Don't believe Hugh's bull.
If he is a lawyer at a law firm (1) he won't be getting big bonuses and (2) he won't be able to afford a house on the cator estate in blackheath.

Anonymous said...

In one of Harold Pinter's plays there is a tramp who is always claiming he's going to move to Sidcup for a better life, but it never quite happens. Remind you of anyone?

Tamsin said...

Sidcup? The best thing about it is the by-pass.

drakfell debaser said...

Whilst there are several other factors that determine the required deposit, the minimum you need, in straightforward circumstances, in order to get the best rate on the market is 25%.

It also depends on what you think is a reasonable rate because you could put down 15% on a purchase of £500K and get a rate similar to what you would have got in 2007 (trackers excluded) when interest rates were increasing, property prices were higher yet people bought property with little hesitation.

Of course, if you are looking for a close correlation between the rate of interest offered now and the underlying cost to the bank for that mortgage then you may as well forget it because banks are doing quite well off mortgages since they started pricing in the risk of armageddon.

Headhunter said...

Fred - I think 30-40% deposit is an exaggeration, I was looking around for mortgage deals a while ago and whilst banks are not willing to lend as freely as they used to, you can get away with 15-20% deposit if you look around and have a decent credit rating.

As for having the money - well some people have it, some don't. I guess you wouldn't be looking at the upgrade in the first place if you couldn't afford it.

Some people certainly can and if they can, now's a good time for it. The only spanner in the works is that because sellers do not perceive that it's a good time to sell, there is less choice of property on the market at the moment compared with a few years ago, so it may take a bit longer to find that dream home.

Hugh said...

Loving all the haters here today. What's up, don't you earn enough?

:)

on and on and on and on said...

Hugh, we are not haters - we are dissers.

Anonymous said...

Hugh, are you rude to waiters? I'm guessing you're the kind of chap who would be, or as Blur would put it - a charmless man.

Monkeyboy said...

Anyone read American Psycho?

Patrick Bateman: Paul Allen has mistaken me for this dickhead Marcus Halberstram. It seems logical because Marcus also works at P&P and in fact does the same exact thing I do and he also has a penchant for Valentino suits and Oliver Peoples glasses. Marcus and I even go to the same barber, although I have a slightly better haircut.

Remind you of anyone?

Well I think so anyway.

Tyrwhitt Michael said...

Brockley Jack?

:)

Hugh said...

Bit unfair to Nick, Monkeyboy. Play the game, old man.

Brockley Nick said...

@Hugh - I'm more of a Victor Ward. http://bit.ly/7LUAX

Hugh said...

Pre- or post-op, Nick?

Robble said...

Hello, I’m new to this blog. Here’s how thing’s look from the buyer’s side (I’m looking for a home in Brockley):

- Places appear to be selling quickly.
- Estate agents are saying places are still for sale when they’re not, to try and lure new buyers like me (so they have my details when a place actually does come on the market).
- The best mortgage deals are for buyers with a 25% deposit (not 40%).
- People are telling us that they aren’t selling yet because they’re waiting for property prices to go up to the peak of the market again.

On that last point, I’m actually selling my place and trying to move a bigger place in Brockley because I think the market has gone as low as it’s going to go for a bit (around 2007 prices).

I agree with Headhunter. If you’re in the same boat and you’re trading up to somewhere bigger, it’s better to do it now because if prices go up, the price of the place you move to will go up even more proportionally. It’ll cost you more in the long run.

So, back to Brockley. If you see a young couple (ie us) looking around tomorrow, say hello. If you’re thinking of selling but can’t face the fees and faff of an estate agent drop me a line.

fromrob@gmail.com

Anonymous said...

Nick's giving up a bit early on the baseline rallies these days

Fried Chicken Shock said...

I read this as KFC and couldn't believe we didn't have enough outlets already

Anonymous said...

Brockley may have fried chicken, but it doesn't have KFC. Real KFC is very, very nice. But our nearest outlets are Deptford, Catford and Old Kent Road :(

Anonymous said...

very very nice?

I think my beagle has a better palate. And he enjoyes licking his own nuts...

Headhunter said...

Good and they can stay there. If we have to have fried chicken, let them be independent businesses!

Anonymous said...

What's so special about independent businesses?

Headhunter said...

It's nice to support a local business rather than some enormo-US conglomerate chain/franchise sometimes, that's all. No biggie though. I still shop at chains, but if there were a choice and the price was the same, I'd go to the independent.

Anonymous said...

A shop's a shop as far as I'm concerned. Eggs is eggs etc...

Headhunter said...

Yeah but as far as I'm concerned, it's better to support a business run by a local person who knows and understands the area, responds to requests for items you want and can add variety to the high street rather than Brockley having the same old boring chains staffed by brainless teens that every small town across the UK has. Independents simply add a bit more variety.

However I can understand that these reasons may be less relevant when it comes to the world of fried chicken. Fried chicken is fried chicken as far as I'm concerned, heavy on fat and stodge, low on quality.

Brockley Nick said...

There are lots of reasons why independents can be worse than big chains.

Multinationals can be lobbied, monitored, regulated and boycotted, for example encouraging them to cut fat or salt, reduce packaging or improve working conditions for their staff or supply chain.

I don't think Yum Group (owners of KFC) are exactly world-leaders in CSR / sustainability, but I bet they've spent a lot more time improving welfare conditions for their poultry or the nutritional content of their food than the guys who run our local chicken establishments.

As for variety on the highstreet - well sometimes. But is every newsagent or kebab shop a unique and fascinating addition to our streets? Are the guys who own a locally owned off-license or pub inherently friendlier or more locally-engagede than the guys who run Oddbins or the Brockley Barge? Sometimes. Sometimes not.

Each business needs to be judged on its merits.

Hugh said...

If it falls to me to make a stand in the face of hopeless odds against the teeming, seething masses in defence of the good old-fashioned virtues of naked capitalism and the globalisation of industry, then yeh, I can get jiggy wid dat.

Tyrwhitt Michael said...

Why is there no multi-national high street Kebab chain?

Answers on a Pitta Bread to........

Anonymous said...

Interesting. But there aren't any national Fish n Chip chains either - but the overall quality of fish n chip food tends to be higher. Maybe it's the way it's done - chipped potatoes cooking over the day rather than frozen fries cooked to order. Britain should be proud of its Chippies.

Imagine trying to find a takeaway menu in Headhunter's house :(

Tyrwhitt Michael said...

What about Harry Ramsden's?

Headhunter said...

Nick - I'm aware of the advantages of chains. I shop at Tesco, Sainsbury's and Asda for my food but also increasingly Lewisham market on a Saturday, if I'm around - I've only recently discovered it and it's brilliant and dirt cheap.

Generally speaking however, I'd prefer a small centre like Brockley, Crofton Park or Ladywell to be dominated by independents than small chain shops. Obviuosly that's unlikely to work in a large indoor shopping centre like the one in Lewisham.

Independents simply add a sense of individuality and community, however when I say this I'm thinking more along the lines of specialist food and drink shops, restaurants and cafes rather than newsagents, fried chicken/pizza joints and corner shops, although even then, I think I'd prefer them to be run by a local trader than some anonymous multinational.

Having said all that, I was pleased when Tesco Metro opened on Lewisham Way almost at the end of Manor Ave so I'm kinda torn. I would also prefer to see the Brockley Barge in its current set up, running as a Wetherspoons pub, than derelict and boarded up or converted into flats.

No anon, you wouldn't find a takeaway menu in my place, they go straight into the recycling. I only eat organic mung beans grown in Tibet.

Ross said...

"Nick - I'm aware of the advantages of chains. I shop at Tesco, Sainsbury's and Asda for my food but also increasingly Lewisham market on a Saturday, if I'm around - I've only recently discovered it and it's brilliant and dirt cheap."

this is very interesting and i've talked about this with a couple of people recently.
where do you think that fruit/veg/meat/veg comes from? i have to agree with Nick that i think i'd maybe rather have all of that come through tescos etc because at least then its monitored and regulated to a slightly higher standard.
the only people you're supporting by going to lewisham market are the market traders (dunno how local some are either) and perhaps a couple of distributors in the chain.

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