Boris "seriously looking at the Bakerloo extension"

Mayor Boris Johnson has confirmed that he is giving serious consideration to a Bakerloo Line extension through South East London. In today's #askboris Q&A, he responded to a question about tube provision in south London:

This is the second bit of positive noise Boris has made about the idea this year. And while we understand that these utterances need to be taken with a huge dollop of salt, we've argued for a while that although the Bakerloo line is nominally lower down the priority list than the likes of Crossrail 2, it's also a relatively cheap and easy way of expanding London's transport capacity, in a way that might become appealing to our opportunistic Mayor.

While mega-projects like Crossrail and Thameslink take decades, everyone has taken note of what the relatively cheap and easy ELL upgrade achieved. The Northern Line extension to Battersea is set to do something similar. A Mayor in search of a quick win could do worse than extend the Bakerloo through Southwark to Lewisham.

With thanks to Monkeyboy.

23 comments:

darryl1974 said...

He says any old crap in those #askboris sessions, though.

yeah but.. said...

would it stop at Brockley?

Matt-Z said...

With the truth slowly starting to emerge about just how bad the recent funding settlement for TfL was, I would not hold my breath for this. Even a cut-price scheme with a few frugally-built stops would run into the billions and there just isn't spare funding rolling around at 55 Broadway for anything major. The local councils clamouring for the Bakerloo to head their way are also penniless, paring back services wherever possible as their central funding has also been reduced.


On top of this the programme for new deep level tube trains has been put back years, with new rolling stock unlikely to hit the rails before the mid-2020s at the earliest. This means that the existing Bakerloo trains (called 1972 stock, as that's when they were built) will get a refurb to keep them soldiering on until 2030. Refurbished or not, the fleet is not large enough to provide current levels of service over an extended line.



Both Crossrail and the Northern Line extension benefit from calling at desirable, prime locations, and being able to extract significant sums from businesses and developers. The Bakerloo extension doesn't have the same reach, and I can't see Brockley Hydroponics or the Tickle Me takeaway stumping up much in levies.

Lewisham said...

I agree with some of the comments, but when there are votes available, money is can found.

Perhaps if South East residents lobbied local councillors, MPs and Boris, then there would be less talk and hopefully some action. (Look at Lewisham Hospital campaign)

An extension of the DLR South, this Bakerloo Line, or a branch off from the overground east from New Cross would do a lot for transport.

Bakerloo said...

Well done Boris !! We like the Bakerloo line in Lewisham

Brockley-er said...

Hmm exciting! Yes I think a good fistful of salt is needed before thinking about buzzing straight up to Piccadilly Circus - but there are a few other indications that this does have a chance: Osborne (belatedly) does like infrastructure spending. It was in the South East Rail User Strategy. And tactically, this looks like a 'cheaper' option for TfL to seek Government funding for, when compared to Crossrail2. Depending on the route, the ex-industrial and low-density retail along OKR could provide some redevelopment opportunities to help with funding. And in a rational world, TfL and the mayor's office would realise that SE London has been hard done by for years regarding underground service and doesn't get much transport capacity for its TfL contributions....

Anon said...

JRC Jonathan Roberts Consulting produced, "Potential options for Bakerloo Line extension towards SE London" for Lewisham Council in 2010.

Costs: Stations: new station in tube £100m, each extra interchange £50m, alteration to existing station where adapted main line £30m. Tube tunnels: overall £180m per mile of new twin-tunnel railway. Adaptation costs for existing main line, per double-track mile, if used for tube trains: £40m. Trains (assumes 7-car trains): £9m (rounded up, ie 1 train = £10m). Land acquisition, depot changes, other related infrastructure, environmental mitigation, engineering, design and project management costs, risk contingency: taken as £130m per double-track mile for tunnel section, £30m per mile for surface section.

Timescale:The timescale for any extension could be lengthy. The Fleet Line scheme (at one point planned to take over the Hayes Line in SE London) was conceived by 1965 and subsequently become the Jubilee Line, but was only affordable initially between Stanmore and Central London (open 1979). Plans to extend to SE London were replaced by the River Line scheme in the late 1970s, and then by the Jubilee Line Extension project, which ran as a scheme from first planning ideas in 1988 (including a separate Waterloo and Greenwich railway) and to full opening in 1999. There are still works underway to increase the line’s capacity.

http://councilmeetings.lewisham.gov.uk/Data/Sustainable%20Development%20Select%20Committee/20100914/Agenda/04%20-%20%20Appendix%20B%20Bakerloo%20Line%20SE%20London%20extensions%20review%20-%20PDF.pdf

maisie_moo said...

I don't see any benefit, even if it goes to New Cross and Lewisham - the Overground will still be way more convenient. .

AliAfro said...

Unless you need to get to any of the stations on the bakerloo line, or west-end / west london... Plus there is a scenario (admittedely a less likely one) where the extension could run from elephant and castle to Bromley South via the existing Sevenoaks train line that runs via Crofton Park...

maisie_moo said...

I suppose it depends where in Brockley you are - I'm 25 minutes walk from Lewisham station, so a quick change onto the Jubilee and a fairly easy change at Waterloo are still going to be a lot quicker than slogging over to Lewisham or even New Cross.

I like the Crofton Park idea, but it does seem a fairly remote possibility.

HanoN said...

The proposed route is - New Cross Gate - Lewisham - Ladywell - Catford Bridge - terminating at Hayes.
When did you last try to get into work from any station south of Lewisham?

HanoN said...

No. Not Brockley. Sorry.
St Johns is only a v slim possibility.
Gotta be less than 50%.
St Johns is not even shown on the proposed map.

Matt-Z said...

Taking over the Sevenoaks line through Crofton Park is not going to happen.


Aside from the conflicts of sharing track with other passenger services that use sections of the line (e.g. around Shortlands and Bromley South) and the non-stopping services that sail past on the way to Victoria, there is significant freight use on the line. With paths committed and indeed their use due to grow up to 2050, there is little chance of the freight operators letting them go. Slow moving freight is incompatible with a high frequency tube service.


If the Bakerloo ever gets extended it is likely to be all new with tunnels from Elephant to Lewisham, either ending there or taking a brand new route further south-eastward. Taking over the Hayes line will face stern resistance from passengers and politicians in Kent - remember it was local government opposition that prevented TfL from getting their hands on South Eastern's metro routes, when all they proposed was improving off-peak services. Faced with swapping fast, full size trains and the convenient stop at London Bridge for slower, shorter, smaller tube trains with many more stops before they reach the West End, it will be a hard sell, no matter how much Network Rail would like to shed the branch.


Despite Boris's sound bites I feel the regional option for Crossrail 2 is more likely to see the light of day than a Bakerloo extension, not least as it benefits people outside of London. I'd be happy to be proved wrong though!

Brockley Nick said...

The route HanoN has mentioned is only one possible route, but if it did stop at New Cross Gate then that would be phenomenally useful. One stop on the ELL or mainline train and you'd be on the Bakerloo. Good for E&C and all the new stops it would create, but also great for stops further up the line, without the hassle of the world's longest interchange at Waterloo.


Besides, the real benefit would be the massive regenerative boost it would deliver for a massive swathe of land along the OKR (and general SE connectivity). If you're concerned about the lack of jobs and businesses in SE London, then this is really important.

maisie_moo said...

Wikipedia and other sources I can see (admittedly based on a quick search) have the Lewisham option stopping at New Cross, NOT New Cross Gate. The latter would be considerably more useful for Brockley people. Which source shows New Cross Gate?

Matt-Z said...

Some discussions have suggested a double-ended station between New Cross and New Cross Gate, similar to the new central London Crossrail stations like Farrindgon, which will also have an exit at Barbican.

maisie_moo said...

My comment was based on it being New Cross (as suggested by all the sources I can see), not a nice, easy change at New Cross Gate. The latter would be good, I agree.

rationalplan said...

Fund raising is the big problem. To build all the money will need to raised locally. So either borrowing or some form of tax. on business and householders. Maybe just on the boroughs effected.


What ever the option won't be easy as Central government does not like London being too free. Besides Crossrail 2 is lined up to swallow any funding first, Unless the tax raising ability really soars.


Then we get into arguments of different boroughs taxes funding lines they don't benefit from.

HanoN said...

Maisie_moo:
A while back TfL published the map below of their preferred proposed route.
Zoom in and you'll see the new Bakerloo Line station 'New Cross Gate' is marked in brown. Brown is the colour of the Bakerloo Line. The existing station 'New Cross' is not highlighted in brown.
Mention of 'other sources'. What 'other sources' are there for the identity of this station?
Matt-Z:
Nice idea - the double ender platform - but it's probably not an option here. The map doesn't show platform linkage. This might be because the new line will either still be in a tunnel or just breaking out of one. To go on to Lewisham it will have to be tunnelled. The map suggests they're not going to use St Johns and that means a whole new sub surface line.
More likely than not the new 'New Cross Gate' Bakerloo line station will end up sub zero with the rest of the line.

HanoN said...

1.Lewisham
2.Ladywell
2.Catford Bridge
4.Lower Sydenham
4 Proposed Bakerloo Line stations and all in 1 London Borough - The London Borough of Lewisham. It's probably fair to say Lewisham are 100% onboard will all this.
Forwards from 2024 and with the Bakerloo Line extension AND the DLR extension both up and running the suburbs of South East London will never be the same again.

Bert said...

Don't congratulate the ridiculous twerp yet: he hasn't done anything.

Monkeyboy said...

Would be great but please don't give so much emphasise on what Lewisham or any other council want. It's just not something they can have much influence over. It's a big strategic decision that will come from TfL and will require a huge commitment from central government, unless lewisham came up with a huge funding source which I can't see.

Railway Child said...

Fine if you live near the overground, but what about those of us that don't? The railway serving Lewisham etc is massively overcrowded, with the DLR not making any noticeable difference to it. And SE London is badly inter-connected with a dearth of lines across the region. This would be a tremendous boost to the area. Keeping fingers and everything crossed!

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