Lewisham house prices rising at 14% annually as Great Inversion accelerates

Lewisham's house prices have risen at an average annualised rate of 14% over the last two quarters, the 8th fastest recorded price rise in London, according to the latest Nationwide House Price Index.

The data, released yesterday, shows an acceleration of the trend we've written about before - in terms of house prices, inner and outer London are diverging as a "great inversion" takes place.

London boroughs ranked in terms of the fastest rising house prices over the last 6 months
As the map shows, all of the fastest-rising boroughs are in London's inner core. By contrast, all of the boroughs with the slowest rates of house price growth are at the city's edges: Kingston Upon Thames, Redbridge and Harrow's prices have hardly risen at all. The City and K&C are excluded on the basis that too few sales are recorded to provide an accurate sample.

The factors driving this (with the exception, possibly, of international investors flooding into central London) are all long-term trends - jobs are increasingly centrally located, people are having families later and the quality of life (air quality, crime, schools, shops and restaurants are all improving in inner London). So the price trends should be similarly sustained.

Lewisham is still fairly affordable by London standards (17th overall in terms of average house prices) but expect the tables to change significantly within a few years. These trends mean (other than in pockets) the end of relatively cheap homes in Lewisham and inner London. The map is being redrawn and the effects over the next decade will be profound.

23 comments:

Meg said...

This is a really interesting article.
We are thinking of buying in Hither Green soon and have seen a property we are interested in but it is probably one of the highest prices for its size. Do you think that this is a good area to buy in terms of future prospects?
Thanks!

Vicar's Knickers said...

This survey and others I have seen bare out what I have noticed locally in the last couple of years. The migration East from West London has finally caught up with Lewisham, as buyers are priced out. People who would have never considered this area, even though they had never set foot here, have now released that the housing stock is pretty good, and there are virtually no good areas left with good connections to The City and Docklands.
I would expect prices to continue rising until The Bank of England puts interest rates back to their long term average. I would expect houses to outperform flats as they are becoming increasingly scarce.

AliAfro said...

Anecdotal evidence but we got our Crofton Park house valued recently and the estate agent said 9 out of 10 buyers on their books were from north or south-west London - It sounds like SE London is no longer a no-go area and the secret is well and truly out. I wonder whether Catford will come along with Brockley for the crazy price-rise ride, or will that take a little longer?

Headhunter said...

Houses (as opposed to flats) are 1 thing we have quite a lot of across SE London. Peckham, Crofton Park, Nunhead, New Cross and Catford (among other places) still have acres and acres of houses rather than flats. Admittedly if you want a house specifically in somewhere like the Brockley conservation area then you're a bit stuck...

PeoplesAssemblySEL said...

Another driver of prices is this by Foxtons pic.twitter.com/SSNPsJ7iHs (spotted by AlternativeSE4)

Vicar's Knickers said...

Catford is down for massive development once the centre has been demolished, and there is still the old Catford dog track. I know of a couple of people who have bought several flats off plan already. Not sure but I think it's Barratt who are the developers.

Brockley Nick said...

I know some people think Foxtons have magical powers to increase prices, but I think this is over-egging it somewhat.

Tamsin said...

Hither Green and it's environs has some lovely houses - just think of the Corbett estate, and particularly the ones off the South Circular.
Hither Green station has good connections into and out of London. Maybe things have changed a bit since I was commuting into the Centre but I was very much aware that for many of the fast services Hither Green was the first stop. (Once got on one by accident and Hither Green was the first place I could get out. By an amazing chance a few pages of the A-Z were blowing about on the pavement outside the station - and they were the right ones to get me where I wanted to go!)
It also has a good range of shops along Hither Green Lane and, by the sound of it, a strong sense of community with fairs and events at least a couple of times a year and a Festival week in June.

Headhunter said...

The Corbett Estate is Catford isn't it? Unless there are 2. I lived there back in 2000/2001 and my nearest stations were most certainly Catford and Catford Bridge... Hither Green was a good 40 odd minute walk away.


I think you're right about connections though, I think there are quite good, fast connections to London Bride and may be Charing Cross. I looked at a couple of houses in Hither Green before settling on a flat in Brockley in 2006...

PeoplesAssemblySEL said...

Yes, we agree Foxtons is not a driver per se. But university related demand is a high likely factor in local price rises as espoused by Foxtons marketing. It's something that has been happening for years, in many university towns ,Cherie Blair, Bristol springs to mind.

East of Eden said...

In reference to the Hither Green discussion, many of the Corbett roads off the eastern end of Brownhill Road have Hither Green as the nearest station - when you look on the you see what I mean. Some are actually se13 postcodes rather than (the smaller part of the estate north of Brownhill Road). The better value for money has always been on the western side of hither green station, it may still be, and Lee side is so pricey these days. (I know the area but don't live near there these days).

East of Eden said...

(CORRECTED VERSION): In reference to the Hither Green discussion, many of the Corbett roads off the eastern end of Brownhill Road have Hither Green as the nearest station - when you look on the map you see what I mean. Some are actually se13 postcodes rather than se6 ones (I mean just the the smaller part of the estate that is north of Brownhill Road). The better value for money has always been on the western side of hither green station, it may still be, and the Lee side is just so pricey these days. (I know the area but don't live near there these days). Everything is expensive everywhere, but Nick is right - its only going up and property will be even higher before the end of the year, and probably the year after too.....

Yim said...

The morning train service lets you down a lot less than Brockley.

Brockley Nick said...

I doubt many homes in New Cross are bought by parents of Goldsmiths undergrads, but I'd be happy to be shown data suggesting otherwise. Are you suggesting there's a problem with people buying rather than renting? In any case, this trend is about the whole of the borough - and the whole of inner London.

terrencetrentderby said...

The biggest driver is migration to London, from the UK and mostly overseas. The population of London is set to increase by at least 1 million in under 20 years. House building is in no way going to keep up with this demand meaning prices will soar even more.

terrencetrentderby said...

Sorry make that just over 10 years

Anon said...

In 2012 there was a speculative planning application to accommodate 500 students on a site at Thurston Road..

"The proposal would provide accommodation for 410 students in the form of 84 self contained studio rooms and 58 ‘cluster rooms’ where between 4 and 6 en-suite study/bedrooms share a communal living space and kitchen facilities. The student rooms would be situated from the second to 11th floors."

Council officers welcomed the scheme, but there's no indication as to the outcome.

M said...

No. The Corbett estate stretches right up to Hither Green station (Wellmeadow Road, for example).
Hither Green is definitely a good bet. The transport links are great.

M said...

It's already happening. The aforementioned Corbett estate still has great 3/4 bed houses for under £400k - although prices are rising. We moved here 2 years ago (from Brockley) and have noticed a real change in the area in that time.

Tom Watson said...

I have just been looking at property in sharm el shake, This was helpful thank you

karl brown said...

Deptford bridge is the cheapest but most up coming area. a load of regeneration just up the road, a DLR six stops from Canada Square, Grennwich overspill, Convoys walk development on the way. some trendy resuarants opened in the broadway, the famous dance school, the creek road creative area, the Saachi art gallery,,, all that is needed is to clean up the streets and it is a massive hotspot in the making. yet the most affordable area in london

Phil Spencer said...

Still smells though and the crossing by the bridge is a death trap.

Being near Greenwich and Canary Wharf will drag the prices up. The library and gym are great, it has actual local amenities which Brockley lacks.

maisie_moo said...

First signs of a property crash? I see the Thai cafe on Foxberry Rd is back on the market for £450k, whereas 5 months ago they were asking £650k. One swallow doesn't make a summer, but I get the feeling things are cooling - at the very least the lunatic rises of recent months appear to have come to a halt.

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