TfL responds to Bakerloo consultation

TfL has published its response to their public consultation about the southern extension of the Bakerloo Line. There are few surprises in their responses, but the tone of the document suggests that the project is definitely on, one way or another, with the 2030 the likely opening date.

Perhaps most surprising is that there are actually members of the public who oppose the plan on the basis that "Southeast London already has adequate transport links." Besides this revelation, there are few interesting titbits in their answers:

Lewisham's population is expected to grow much faster than Bromley and by more than Southwark:

The growth forecasts mean the boroughs along the consulted extension options will see the following changes in population and jobs by 2036:

- Southwark: 62,000 more jobs and 62,000 more residents
- Lewisham: 20,000 more jobs and 65,000 more residents
- Bromley: 16,000 more jobs and 53,000 more residents

The route might end at Lewisham, at least initially

The consulted routes included various options for terminus points. TfL is currently undertaking further work to understand whether a phased approach could be taken and what the advantages and disadvantages could be.

Of the options TfL consulted on, only an extension beyond Lewisham, to Hayes and Beckenham Junction, would directly impact National Rail services.

If funding for a full extension cannot be found, TfL might seek to undertake a phased approach as a shorter extension may be cheaper, less complex and potentially quicker to deliver and work could continue to identify how a further extension beyond an initial phase could be funded and delivered.

The Old Kent Road route would be faster and cheaper

For journeys beyond New Cross Gate, to and from central London, Option 1a (via the Old Kent Road), may provide a greater reduction in journey time than Option 1b (via Camberwell) as the route is expected to be shorter. Newly built stations, in areas without existing rail services, could also deliver faster journeys for many people and connect them to new destinations.

Option 1b is currently expected to be a longer extension and is therefore currently expected to be more expensive to build than Option 1a.