Rightmove's "East London Line effect"

The Rightmove House Price Index was widely reported yesterday, with the coverage suggesting that the effect of the East London Line would insulate homeowners from the worst effects of the price drops across London.

This claim seems to have been made on the basis that Hackney, Islington and Southwark(?) are among the least-worst performing Boroughs in London. But while the ELL will bring major benefits to Hackney, it seems doubtful that the ELL could have any significant impact on house prices across Islington; a large borough with plenty of connections already. Likewise, Lewisham (-5.2%) and Croydon (-5.3%) both recorded falls in line with the London-wide average.

So, it seems doubtful that the ELL is currently having any great effect on local houseprices, which is hardly surprising given that house price movements are being driven by an implosion in the mortgage market. Rightmove, nonetheless, said that:

"Areas with Olympic-linked pending transport links are forecast to be the best hedge against price falls."

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

Um, by 'least-worst' do you mean 'best'?

Monkeyboy said...

I'm increasingly non-plussed by these reports. What scrutiny have their conclusions had? I suspect someone at Rightmove said 'i reckon the ELL will protect prices...erm...a bit' and stuck it in a report. I mean Rightmove isn't exactly the LSE is it?

Having said all that (and totally contradicting myself) The ELL can only be a good thing? - assuming you've bought a place rather than trying to get on the ladder.

wife beater said...

if you read the report you'll see that rightmove don't mention the ELL at all , it's the coverage of the report itself which brings these inferences

anyway, cue lots of strenuously concealed glee & indulgent talk about house prices

remember when people thought of houses as a home - you know to live in

Brockley Nick said...

@wb - yes, that's why I said "the coverage" talked about the ELL.

Why is it indulgent to talk about what, for most people, represents the single biggest investment they will ever make?

And please can you change your name?

Monkeyboy said...

Actually I hadn't read the report - soz.

fred vest said...

ok i will change my name - do you have a list of acceptable ones?

however it was you who encouraged people to take part in a competition sponsored by (and largely for the benefit of) a popular alcoholic beverage commonly known by that name - you let the genie out the bottle so to speak. although i can understand why you don't want them to get any bad publicity so consider it done

Brockley Nick said...

Thanks - it has nothing to do with that but let's just try not to upset readers with misognistic monikers just for the sake of it eh? Particularly since you're such a regular, welcome contributor.

The Cat Man said...

Its the Brockley Central 'PC' Brigade i'm afraid!

Well, I have to admit a topic of local discussion (between myself and headhunter - which could also be a suspicious name rather than a job) concluded that locally prices have not gone down. Its more likely that Brockley is a relatively small area compared to the whole of lewisham and is therefore not shown in the statistics.

I personally, with all my economic rigour, believe that the ELL has most definately had a positive affect on local house prices - especially around the station.

Brockley Nick said...

Yes, see, "PC" in its truest sense (before it was hijacked as a term of abuse by right wing morons) is little more than good manners and trying to avoid causing offence or hurt unnecessarily. In that sense, I am very happy to be politically correct.

lb said...

Well, I'm sure the ELL will have some cushioning effect. But then areas with recent large rises in prices (like SE London) are probably the most vulnerable to falls, so it's swings and roundabouts....God, I'm boring myself here.

Alternatively, you could just try sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting "the economy's fine!" repeatedly.

The Cat Man said...

Does that work? :o)

lb said...

Some commenters on here clearly think it does.

fred vest said...

apologies for going off topic and please feel free to delete, but do you believe that if words which describe nasty things are censored it in some way makes any difference to the underlying things that they relate to? (other than dusting away the underlying issue under the carpet and pretending it doesn't exist)

i do find it interesting that some people think that using the words which describe an unfortunate, despicable but sadly real activity means causing offence or causing hurt unnecessarily - shouldn't those feelings be aimed at those who carry out those real underlying activities - rather than trying to vanish away something purely by banning the words which describe it

(i do appreciate however that on certain mediums it's impossible to determine the intent behind the use of such terms)

Brockley Nick said...

Who's censoring things? I asked you to change it, you did, everyone's a winner. Thanks.

As you say, tone of voice is often difficult to convey on a blog or forum, so while you may have given yourself that name as an ironic gesture, it's not obvious to someone logging on. As you say, it's a despicable act, so why run the risk of upsetting someone (potentially someone who's been abused) by calling yourself that, particularly as the biting satirical point you were trying to make expired a couple of weeks ago.

Monkeyboy said...

No one is trying to ban words - that would be silly. It's context, and 'wife beater' in the context of this blog is at best irelevent and at worst offensive. It dosen't add anything and it's not some noble attempt to draw attention to a serious issue. I know some fabulously filty jokes but I wouldn't use them at a funeral - context old boy, context.

Monkeyboy said...

No one is trying to ban words - that would be silly. It's context, and 'wife beater' in the context of this blog is at best irelevent and at worst offensive. It dosen't add anything and it's not some noble attempt to draw attention to a serious issue. I know some fabulously filty jokes but I wouldn't use them at a funeral - context old boy, context.

The Cat Man said...

Its an often talked about debate - i.e. the extent of the ideological barrier between what the majority of people perceive to be acceptable behaviour and the rights of the minority to exhibit different behaviour that is construed to be unacceptable behaviour by the majority.

Its ironic that imposing a barrier for acceptable behaviour actually alienates the minority of people that the barrier was designed to protect.

'PC' just means you take a view that the majority of people believe. It doesn't mean its better or worse than any other view. Often people forget this.

Anonymous said...

The censorship of names on BC ranks alongside enforcement of conservation area guidelines on Speedicars. Pointless...

Headhunter said...

If it's pointless why are you even here making a comment about it?

Anonymous said...

advice please - was I being unreasonable in the following scenario?

at a pub quiz, one of the questions was: what did the words above the entrance to Auswitz say?


I complained that I found it a completely inappropriate question for a quiz and that serious things should stay serious. (I do actually believe that hideous things can be "normalised" by repetition and expectation which is partly why I found it inappropriate.)

They basically said lighten up. and I was left wondering if I were being inappropriate.

answers on a postcard.

incidentally, they gave the answer as "work makes you free", ie the English translation which I found really disrespectful too actually.

Anonymous said...

back to the ELL, yes I saw it and I think they're right.

I've also noticed prices are holding their own around here - asking prices at least are.

I attribute this to a general drop being counteracted by the ELL rise. i anticipate they'll stagnate for a while then take off in 2010 when we are literally "on the map".

fred vest said...

"advice please - was I being unreasonable in the following scenario?"

why should knowledge of history and its horrendous acts be hermetically contained to this or that 'approved' social situation? quizs' are about knowledge and like it or not - not all knowledge is nice & fluffy

"incidentally, they gave the answer as "work makes you free", ie the English translation which I found really disrespectful too actually."

i hope they still gave the points for those who put down arbeit macht frei

ps if you're all about being respectful you might try and spell the name of the place properly

Anonymous said...

Fred, my computer keyboard jumps for every second word, it is quite bad and I need a new one, hence the mistake. I saw it as I sent the posting but I don't know how to change it. does anyone else?

The Cat Man said...

you cant change it, as a anon/named anon poster. you need to have an account then it will let you.

The thing about this blog is that it doesnt like serious debate if it means upsetting anyone. House prices is about as far as it gets.

I agree, its stupid. Particularly when I have just learnt a few things about why South Africa isn't getting any gold medals at the olympics like they used to.

Anonymous said...

No one's afraid of debate you silly little man, it's just that you try and turn everything in to a debate about race. If you want to talk about race and politics in South Africa (which is a much debated subject in the mainstream media, not some secret conspiracy you've just uncovered) go and do it somewhere else. There are plenty of forums out there for your boring, petty rants.

Anonymous said...

This little community blog is more in tune with observing the changes to the local scenery rather than debating the grand polemics of the day.

Get thee hence to urban75, those Brixton types are always up for rumble about ists and isms.

Anonymous said...

I think that much of brockley, particularly within 10 minutes of brockley station, has already experienced the price rises in anticipation of the ELL. I reckon the estate agents are making great efforts to keep house prices high though; check out 4 bed house on manor avenue at £775k, houses on upper brockley road for £600-700k and then look at the prices they sold for 4 years ago (they don't come up for sale very often)and have increased by 65%!!

Anonymous said...

I hope they fall by 20% so I can afford to buy in Brockley !! (sorry everyone who already own a place in Brockers)

Headhunter said...

Certainly prices in Brockers have already risen considerably. I bought my 2 bed in late 06 for about 30-40% more than my sellers bought it for about 3.5 years earlier. The people before that bought it for about 50% less than that in 1997

Anonymous said...

I think that question was valid as a piece of historical general knowledge. Whilst its quite right that serious things are indeed serious, its also right not to put things like the Holocaust on a pedestal where they're above light conversation in any more of a way than the rest of WW2 and the surrounding period should be.

Anonymous said...

As someone with a property on the market in the conservation area, the reality we have experienced is that property asking prices have dropped by 15-20% in the last 6 months. While this equates only back to late 2006 levels, those who think Brockley prices are holding 2007 levels are seriously deluded. We're within 10 mins of brockley station but i really don't think any one of the people who have viewed our property take the ELL into consideration. Maybe for house buyers rather than flat buyers it's more important.

The Cat Man said...

I have a house 1-2 mins walk from Brockley station, and my neighbours house (identical to mine) sold recently for a price which is the same as 2007 levels. Interestingly, there is another house on the market now with a 20k higher asking price.

I think generally houses are holding their value, but flats are decreasing.

There are many many flats in london now, but not many houses.

nobbly brick said...

cat man, curious that your neighbours have a house identical to yours, it must be a bit spooky going into it and seeing your things lying about. Or is your house a copy of theirs? In which case you need to seek professional help.

Headhunter said...

Anon - Perhaps you have dropped your asking price, but looking at property websites, many other flats in the conservation area still seem to be on the market at prices very little different to levels in 2007 so I'm afraid your personal experience does not seem to be the same for everyone. of course many of these flats still haven't sold, but certainly asking prices have changed very little.

Andy - certainly in many areas of London there are fewer houses than flats, but in Brockley and the wider Lewisham area (Crofton Park, Honor Oak etc), there are more houses than flats. Certainly there isn't a shortage of houses round our way!

In fact if anything, there is probably a more limited supply of conservation area accommodation. The cons area with its large Victorian villas is a relatively tiny part of Brockley, let alone Lewisham as a whole, whereas the stock of 2-3 bed Victorian semis and terraced outside the cons area extends in all directions and most have not been converted into flats.

Anonymous said...

headhunter, the drop in property prices is based on estate agent valuations of expected sale value - £300k average from 4 agents in Dec 07, £250k average from 3 agents in Aug 08. This £250k value is based on expecting to be able to sell in 2008. Maybe houses are different but I'm sure there weren't many houses in Brockley for less than £300k when I looked in 2007, now there are quite a few to choose from.

The Cat Man said...

Is there? Maybe its a 'proximity to brockley station' thing.

Check out the sold prices on revelon rd (near the station). sold prices in 2008 are higher than in 2007 for the same type of house.

There isn't many flats there so that could be a factor.

Headhunter said...

There certainly were houses on sale for less than £300k in 07, they varied from about £280-300+ (asking price) depending on condition and size etc. I only bought my flat at the end of 06 (I know, I know, peak of the market etc), and I was addicted to property websites for quite a while afterwards, when bored at work and tracked how prices were changing.

Equally along Manor Ave, my road, which I keep an eye on now and then, 2 bed flats seem to be on sale for anything from about £260-300 (again asking price), and now, if you have a quick look at Rightmove or other such websites, prices don't seem to have changed much at all, and a lot have sold.

Have no idea what they have sold for (haven't checked sold price websites), but many estate agents seem to be putting them on the market for not much less than they were last year.

Perhaps estate agents are now facing facts and have just begun to significantly reduce asking prices. Of course the property market is always pretty slow in the summer anyway and this year it's probably worse than ever. Certainly didn't seem much fall earlier in the 2008 though.

Anonymous said...

certainly, certainly....

Headhunter said...

Definitely, maybe....?

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