House prices in Brockley

One of Brockley Central's guilty pleasures is to read the Housepricecrash forum - a haven for nihilists, misanthropes and people who sold their flat two years ago in the expectation that the house price market was 'just about to crash' and they could buy it back for thruppence, three months later.

However, it's been a bit less of a fun read since the credit crunch, as their property conspiracy theories have gathered momentum and the mood on the boards has shifted from paranoia to triumphalism.

So we thought we'd drop the H-bomb on Brockley Central and ask you what you think about the housing market in SE4. Here's some research we did earlier...

According to Home.co.uk, the average sale price of a property in Brockley rose between November 2006 and 2007 from £235,490 to £259,642, equating to a 10% rise, with flats enjoying the fastest price growth (20%).

And below is Ourproperty.co.uk's list of the 10 most and least expensive streets in Brockley, although in many cases the volume of transactions (measured over two years) is very low, so it may not be a terribly reliable guide to the area, most desirable locations...

Brockley's 10 most expensive roads

1 Crescent Way £613,750
2 Drake Road £515,000
3 Reservoir Road £402,000
4 Montague Avenue £400,000
5 Henryson Road £376,000
6 Elsiemaud Road £365,350
7 Harefield Road £360,500
8 Chalsey Road £356,533
9 Upper Brockley Road £335,722
10 Amyruth Road £333,112

Brockley's 10 least expensive roads

1 Kentwell Close £123,333
2 Pincott Place £146,926
3 Turnham Road £150,600
4 Barville Close £152,667
5 Greatfield Close £154,000
6 Foxwell Street £158,833
7 Brockley Road £167,221
8 Frendsbury Road £173,750
9 Reynard Close £177,500
10 Seymour Gardens £186,269

52 comments:

Anonymous said...

My concern with those lists - or any lists like that, is that is doesn't tell you anything about the properties themselves. If most of the properties on your street are flats, but you live in a house, then the average prices on your street is going to be significantly lower than the value of your property. This info therefore shouldn't be taken out of context. As long as you like the place you live, sit tight, because even if there is a crash, (which I doubt in London ) sure enough they'll creep back up again.

Headhunter said...

Oooh luverly - more house prices! If you do a quick scan of Rightmove or Findaproperty etc, it looks like flats in the conservation area are hanging around a bit since rumours of a crash, however actual houses (3 bed, 4 bed) including those further out in Crofton Park etc which are more expensive than flats, seem to be selling. Looks like there's a bit of a glut of 2 bed flats at the mo which makes up a large percentage of property in the conservation area, as people have rushed to put these on the market to avoid having to supply HIPs (sneaked in for 2 bedders on 14th Dec). Woman at my work's friend just bought a 2 bed in Brockers conservation area, knocked the price down from something like £275-280k to £250k. Save yourself £400 on the HIP but lose several thousand on the asking price! Not a particularly good time to sell unless you absolutely must, although there was something in the Standard about London prices onthe rise again.

Tom said...

This is quite interesting and relevant:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/11/10096/property-pundits-debate-signals-change/

Also, if West Brockley is the dark side and East is the light - as some have claimed here - where is the twilight zone? Brockley Cross? The bottom end of Upper Brockley Road?

Tom said...

Sorry, bad link again. Try this instead.

Andy Pandy Pudding & Pie said...

Revelon Rd (west side) has seen a dramatic increase. FKH have just sold a 2 bed house for £350k for which sold 2 years ago for £250k.

I havnt seen much activity in recent months in my area but house prices certainly havn't fallen.

I'm in it for the longer term anyways, i love my house and have improved it much since buying it so not terribly bothered about house prices.

New flats on mantle road are going at around £250k for a 1 bed.

Monkeyboy said...

Apparently Malpas road is the 7th most transient road. Not sure what that means but I'm strangly proud to have made a list.

Prices do vary, there's a couple on Malpas that are on the market for £450K (3bed terrace) In the words of Andy Millman... 'are you having a laugh!!'

Anonymous said...

West side has seen growth. On Saint Asaph Road Foxtons are selling a house there for approx 100k more than I paid less than a year ago. It's nice but not 100k more nice.

Anonymous said...

I note a recently sold 2-bed maisonette just up the road from me on Malpas Road was on the market for just over £300,000, so I suppose it is not inconceivable that a house could fetch around the £400,000 mark...

Anonymous said...

Anon (malpas rd comment)-
The saint asaph road houses I was referring to are almost identical but a near 100k difference. crazy but true. Arguably the foxtons one hasn't sold yet but even if they were take a massive 40 grand reduction it's still ridiculous.

Monkeyboy said...

Excellent, who wants to buy my 3bed terrace for £420k? I'll even throw in the mice in my cellar.

To be mercenary for a moment, I'm hanging on until the ELL opens. I think Brockley's prices will be hevily influenced by the expansion og Dockland. At some point all the bargins in East London will dry up and young dockland dudes with their ill gotten gains will look at sarf east london.

I'll wait for the flood of posts complaing that they're not real people and don't deserve to live in our idylic Brockley comunity....

nicola name said...

where is Hugh when you need him?

it's clear this area is on the up - do not sell unless you have to - and equally clear the analysis needs to be on a pounds per sq fot basis.

all we need is foxtons now. ;-)

nicola name said...

woops.
should have said "foot"

Ed said...

I work in Canary Wharf (am a real person) and will be moving into the tea factory soon. The ELL extension was a major factor in my choosing Brockley (Brockley's other charms are well documented on this site). My architect father said that the area reminded him of Islington forty years ago...

Monkeyboy said...

Welcome Ed, The Tea Factory looks quiet good actually. Any inside knowledge on what shops and the like are opening underneath? I think I'm right in thinking there will be some commercial spaces up for let?

Headhunter said...

Re Foxtons, they always have priced above market price. Never buy through Foxtons, only try to sell....

Brockley Nick said...

Ed, out of interest have you been told when you will be able to move in to the Tea Factory?

Ed said...

WRT tea factory: There are two commercial units (one small), a cafe and the gallery on the ground floor (plans at http://www.theteafactory.net/). Proposed completion date was 1 February but it is likely to be in March now.

Hugh are so cheeky said...

I enjoy the way Brockley Central rides proudly above the froth and bubble of house price chatter.

I bought here three years ago after renting in the same street for three months. The guy I shared with told me it was the wrong time to buy, as the market was about to dive.

My gaff has appreciated in that time by 52%, according to a valuation in August.

I'm having it valued again. It may be time to sell up and go to cash.

PS Hi Nicola. Fancy a drink?

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't bother mate, she sounds crazy.

nicola said...

Hugh, gosh, I thought you moved to Ealing and I was therefore safe. evidently not. please may i bring my husband? i am sure he'd like to meet you.

Hugh said...

Sorry doll - not my scene.

nicola said...

i fell into that....

Headhunter said...

What do you think this is? Some kind of swinging site? Actually I might put that on "Suggest a Topic"....

Monkeyboy said...

Short hairy bloke with simian features seeks adventurous gibbon....as many bannanas as you can handle.....

james said...

I bought in 2000 in Breakspears and last year sold and bought a 3/4 bed falt in Tressillian. I spoke to King Sturge (aka James Johnson) last week and was told that they have had less properties on the market - and have not been acheiving asking prices. However, they hoped that would change in the Spring.

One thing to remember is the new Capital Gains Tax rules means that we can expect a lot more one and two bed flats to hit the market in April.

james said...

Yikes - hope I bought a flat and not a 'falt'.

Also - my conclusion - maybe Brockley will stay static or lose a few percent - but should be able to wait it out. Those in trouble may be those who HAVE to sell - and whose properites are less desirable. King Sturge did say the market is in way as hot as last year.

Anonymous said...

I pass the Tea Factory on the way to the station and never see any sign of life in there. Is it really going to be completed?
Also, sorry to be rude but really, why would anyone get excited about living there, on a noisy, ugly crossroads with trains rattling by all the time? Fine if it is cheaper but it doesn't seem to be cheaper than nice quiet, solid flats in older houses. Also, I bet somewhere like the Tea Factory will be racking up thousands in service charges in a few years..

chap said...

Ermmmm...presumably they like the look of modern flats and don't mind the noise?

Anonymous said...

i'm a first time flat-owner in the cons area, and am prone to occasional bouts of anxiety about the housing market and my deep chasm of a mortgage. And then, I remember that a) I bought in London, b) I bought in an attractive neighbourhood, which is protected by law so that it stays attractive; c) I bought in zone 2 d) in an area that's about to get onto the tube map. Really, out of the whole country, I can't imagine a surer bet (relatively speaking -- since the whole market is trembling right now). Pretty much everything is in our favour, and this will pan out in time.. Or maybe that's just the view through my rose-coloured naivety.

Andy Pandy Pudding & Pie said...

The area certainly has alot going for it.

Its worth pointing out that there are also disadvantages living in a conservation area - i.e. harder to make alterations to your property, higher maintaince costs and you will probably have a less-enery efficient house as a result of using original materials.

Its also worth pointing out that all housing in protected by law, thats what building regulations and building control is all about.

I cant see much net benefit from saving on not paying stamp duty but paying higher maintaince costs.

Anonymous said...

A possible disadvantage with the conservation area is that the area is not up and coming. You've bought into an a well known 'nice' area and prices are reflected as such. If you'd have bought into a less salubrious area i.e. the west side of tracks, the prices will have been more competetive while still enjoying most of the other other plusses on your list. The west side prices have bigger gains to make.

Also the conservation area only protects the area's niceness in terms of people putting in plastic windows and big extensions. it doesn't stop a drunk yob vandalising your car any more than anywhere.

saying all that I still think your money is safe and Brockley is on the up, and up.

Brockley Nick said...

Anon, I'm not sure that's true. Expensive areas of London haven't tended to rise in price less slowly than less expensive ones. Often the reverse is the case. Your theory would suggest that prices would tend to level out between areas.

Anonymous said...

Nick,
Not neccessarily even out- just see bigger growth. My house on current values has risen way beyond my expectations. I live west side but when I moved in Brockley had no delis', broca or the kind. West side looked a bit bleak. now though all those things are right on our doorstep. Before there was nothing. The conservation area is a bit over valued in my opinion. I bought a 4 bed house west side nearly two years ago. It was a doer upper but for the same price in the conservation area all i could get was flat. one reason for this is that the C area is almost entirely flats or V. large houses - there isn;t much inbetween. In contrast the west side Saint Asaph, Revlon, Dundalk, Finland roads have a really nice mix of flats and victorian terraces. Some need a bit of TLC but they're well worth it. As Brockley station becomes increasingly important and the shops around it increase I believe the roads on the west side will become increasingly desirable - and see a bigger increase, relatively than say Tresillian, or Breakspears road.
PJ

Anonymous said...

A small addition. I do think there will be an element of levelling, not completly, the conservation area will still grow, and it's likely that the west side will never be as desirable on the whole - BUT- I'm suggesting that the relatively untapped potentail of the west side will find a correction in the market (for want of a better word) and bring it closer in line to conservation area prices once it's tidied up a little.

As an example - anyone who walks across the footbridge bridge will be able to tell you that since the Maypole Pub has been knocked down the west side exit has a much less claustrophobic feel to it, and points towards a positive future for that previously dark and scary slice of road. Big changes like these can have a dramtic impact on the area.
Sorry to go on. PJ

Anonymous said...

The conservation area is a wonderful place to live. The prices can go up and down like a yo-yo for all I care. I have no plans to sell.

Anonymous said...

Where you live maybe but to generalise like that is inaccurate. parts of the conservation area (towards the end of upper Brockley Road for example) are not wonderful at all, they're diabolical - unless wonderful means drug dealers hanging outside your flat selling crack.

brockley mutha said...

ditto - but i would extend that to most of brockley - east, west, north, south - I love it, and have no plans to move. unless, of course, property prices in Barnes come tumbling down to brockley levels.

but so saying i like seeing property prices go up because it indicates that other people like brockley too. And in my mind that is a good thing, because then the people who live in brockley will start to exert pressure on the powers that be to get some of the things the area needs, better schools, better shopping facilities that don't entail a car ride, and safer streets. And those are things that benefit everyone - regardless of whether they live in the conservation area or not.

anyone want to borrow my soapbox.

Marisa said...

I love Brockley. I was born and brought up in London (North London!) and I've not found a more special place to live than Brockley. Sorry, I know I can hear the violins in the background but I do really mean it. It's the most safest, unspoilt, undiscovered, creative area I know.

With regards to prices; When I sold my two bedroom house in Stamford Hill in 2003, I bought a three bedroom house in Brockley for exactly the same price. Looking at the price comparison now, my house here in Brockley is now £150,000 more expensive! This either means you can get a bargain in Stamford Hill or Brockley has really found it's place on the map.

Nicola said...

Rather than comapre THill with Brockley or Hily Fields, I'd look wider and compare SE "n" with Notting Hill or Islington.

After a quick survey, prices in Hilly Fields seem seldom to achieve more than 450 per sq foot. Cf Notting Hill where 1000 per sq foot is your STARTING point and compare Barnsbury, Islington which is around 800 per sq foot these days.


James (with the 3/4 bed in Tressilian) I think you and those with the whole houses - are any still whole houses? - could do particularly well as there's a shortage of that type of property relative to flats.

I think once you decide to take the plunge, the whole SE4 area is RELATIVELY a screaming buy. It is completely on the up for every reason - demographics, train, shops, investment in it and around it. In no way is it getting worse. (save perhaps for the weather...)


So, my property thoughts:

1. would I buy now as a first time buyer? probably not. I'd prefer to wait for more clarity from the sub prime mess. UNLESS i saw a great bargain ie someone keen to sell.

2. Would I move from one flat owned to another? yes, why not? sell highish, buy highish, nothing economically wrong with that and it does keep you in the market.


3.what sort of place would I buy? - much as I like eg the Tea Factory, I'd buy an old flat as there's not going to be any more supply.

Musing it over, it occurs to me that the absolute best investment is probably for a group of friends to get together and buy a whole house - houses are going to do better than flats going forward for supply reasons.

Anyone agree/disagree with the above?

nicola said...

to Anonymous at 13.12,

I completely agree with your analysis. Relative to most places, se4 will do well over the medium term - now there's a prediction!!! - because, although prices have risen a lot, they are not as inflated as other areas - see my earlier posting. Don't worry. It suits you if the bottom falls out of the market as your place here will drop but other places eg Clapham, Islington etc, MUCH more. They've peaked darlings, our little Brockley has a long way still to go.

Anonymous said...

I am exchanging contracts on a 2 bed flat on Jerningham Rd next week(pretty close to Brockley) I really like the area, Brockley and the flat but a bit stressed about the don't buy now if you are a first time buyer situation.

I think I got a good deal as I knocked off 15k from the asking price but would anyone be able to tell me what the selling price is for a 2 bed flat in the area when it does need some renovation? A long shoot I know -Thanks

ross said...

"Anyone agree/disagree with the above?"

how about people return to the time when they bought a place, if they could afford it, as a home, to live in

Monkeyboy said...

what time was that then? The time when you happily handed over your cash with a friendly wave without any idea whether you were paying over the odds? I must have missed that.

Anonymous said...

Ross, bit of an unreasonable comment from you there. I'm sure the person can afford it and wants to live there, as a home. But frankly you'd be an idiot not to look at the market and have concerns. We've all done it no matter when we bought.

Anon- I don't know about the prices on Jerningham but for the record it's a decent road, nicely close to Brockley and well within Telegraph Hill. I wouldn't worry too much, it's a desirable area and Brockker is improving.


Did anyone else read the London Lite last night when it said that house prices are expected to rise 20% anywhere near the New East London Line once it's completed?
Thoughts?

Pete said...

My thoughts on that are that it was a press release from the Society of Estate Agents (if they existed)!

Bea said...

@ Anon 23:43

Two bedroom flats are going for anywhere between £250K at the very low end up to £320k at the top end depending on location (i.e. inside / outside the conservation area), size of rooms, state of interior decor and whether it comes with a private garden, communal garden or not. Last year two bed flats ranged from £200k to £290k. So as you can see they have gone up. It is the 1 bed flats that have seen the most dramatic change though. A one bed will cost you £250K now, where as last year you could get one for £180k. The problem is there are virtually no 1 bed flats on the market!

I finally took the plunge last year and bought a 1 bed flat (having rented for two years in Brockley) and I am so pleased I did – it too was run down and needed work but then I got it well below market price (partly because the lease was running out and we had an absentee landlord – we are now in the process of buying the freehold). Just by painting the front door, getting a new carpet organized for the communal area and putting some flowers out front I'm sure it is in a very different price bracket to previously.

In the past, I have lived in Hampstead, Bethnal Green/Whitechapel and Hackney and I have to say that Brockers is by far the best (even better than Hampstead!).

Brockers rules!

Rosie Posie said...

To all that replied to my posting about moving to Telegraph Hill: big thanks! All comments very much appreciated. I like it, can afford it and I am ready to buy, need no more reasons but will need a builder & decorator soon :)

Anonymous said...

Not wishing to rain on too many parades, but some of us remember the property crash of the early nineties. Property in Brockley tumbled in value by 25% and took ten years to recover its value. This blighted the lived of many people for years. Unable to afford to pay the mortgage on the homes they had bought and unable to sell without facing a huge loss. Negative equity, they called it and it stalked the land in this property obsessed nation.

Here is a scenario: the government allows local government to build social housing. Unblocking the supply of new housing that has been constrained since the days of Mrs T. This reduces the demand for private rentals. This pushes many of the buy to let investors to the point where their rentals cannot pay the mortgages and they have to start subsidizing their investment. Then we have all those who cannot do this. Self certifying mortgage holders who have been economical with the truth with regards to income when they originally applied for their mortgage. This UK version of the sub prime scandal starts to unravel for all of those who banked on rising capital values. House prices go into free fall, the market corrects by 25% and history repeats itself.

Are we in for a perfect storm?

I always look at the number of estate agents in the area, when they start closing you know the market has ground to a halt.

On a more positive note, it does mean we might get some more normal shops.

JPM said...

Yes, but one shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the domain's owner has a vested interest. Here's what the young man says in a recent blog (September 2007).

"The way I see it is people who can't really afford a mortgage because they have failed to properly assess the risks with home ownership and have overstretched themselves actually not only deserve to lose their homes but should lose them.
[NICE.]

I don't see why those of us who are either unable to afford suitable accommodation and have had to settle for a tiny or substandard property (relative to income) [HE MEANS HIMSELF] or those of us who have sensibly decided to rent a house should have to sit by and watch a bunch of greedy financial illiterates get bailed out by the BoE or the government. [NO PROBLEM THERE.]

We need even higher interest rates now and a correction so that we can transfer the decent property assets from the aging empty nesting population who don't need them [REMEMBER THIS] to the younger generation who do need them [HE'S 25/6.] to raise families and are fed up of living in bloody flats! [AND THERE IT IS.]

"If you think about it what is the worst that can happen if you lose your house? You have to rent another one and you learn a lesson about not over stretching yourself in the future. When I bought my house I planned for 15% interest rates so I could feel secure but I don't know anyone else who has bought and done that especially not around the time I bought when rates were down at 3.75%! [Circa 2003.] I know that sounds a bit extreme but I don't think it is. [WRONG, BRENDAN, IT IS.]

"Bring on a HousePriceCrash.co.uk so I can afford a proper house is what I say."

[Methinks this former meat packer from Tesco has a vested interest in the property market - failing that is. QED.]

JPM said...

Took me a while to realise that this is the same chap who provides property information via one of his other sites, propetyprices.co.uk. It paints a totally different picture, in that it shows prices in Brockley 'rising'.

This is what propertyprices.co.uk sent (and I have also seen it posted elswhere on this site):

• 54, Merritt Road, SE4 1DX - Sold for £246,329 on 20-12-2007
• Top Floor Flat, 4, Wickham Road, SE4 1PB - Sold for £190,000 on 11-12-2007
• 69, Foxborough Gardens, SE4 1HU - Sold for £260,000 on 30-11-2007
• Flat C, 180 Morgan House, Chudleigh Road, SE4 1EE - Sold for £200,000 on 30-11-2007
• 3, Merritt Road, SE4 1DU - Sold for £360,000 on 27-11-2007
• 73, Upper Brockley Road, SE4 1TF - Sold for £750,000 on 23-11-2007
• Flat 8, 213 Leigh Court, Lewisham Way, SE4 1UY - Sold for £150,000 on 21-11-2007
• 11, Greatfield Close, SE4 1LA - Sold for £169,000 on 16-11-2007
• Flat 3, 91, Manor Avenue, SE4 1TD - Sold for £232,495 on 16-11-2007
• 58, Geoffrey Road, SE4 1NT - Sold for £625,000 on 15-11-2007

It should be noted that these are winter sales, a notoriously downsided time to sell. [The sales may have started in summer though. Additonally they wouldn't have been affected by the Northern Rock fiasco. The Manor Avenue property I believe is a two-bedder.]

Compared to property prices in NW London, zone 2, Brockley still has a heck of a way to go, and it is moving up.

There may be examples of reductions by 3%, but, in my experience estate agents foresee this and factor it in by raising prices by that amount (or more) to 'test' the market. Of course the problem is the vendor then has this fixed price expectation in his/her head and this leads to disappointment.

However, If one accepts that SE London (Brockley) cannot compare with NW London on a like for like, the latter is static or falling, a comparison may still be done.

I have a property which fell by 8% having risen by 32% in 4 years in NW, whilst Brockley 'fell' - did it really? - within the 3% estate agent factor above. I expect that the prices of this NW property will rise due to the halo factor, so I'm not concerned by a fall. However, there' a chance that this will work in reverse and nearby prices will fall to meet it.]

However, that said, a two bed property valued at £450k (conservative estimate) in NW (Zone 2) compares quite favourably with the Brockley at £250k (overestimate). The NW propery is valued at 55.5% more than Brockley. No, it's not a like for like area, but there is a hell of a lot of points to play around with. In fact, doing the sums in reverse, Brockley is approximately 44.4% cheaper than Kilburn - a difference just short of £200k.

I think this represents a rather compelling reason why Brockley, Forest Hill, Honor Oak and surronding areas, will make the new ELR line properties the number one hotspots in Zone 2 London.

Anonymous said...

I am trying to find out the price of the flat with aboard outside it on the corner of Wickham/Harefield.

It's on with Foxtons but either I am making some silly mistake when looking on their website or it isn't uploaded yet.

Would anyone enlighten me? thanks

Highest CD Rates said...

This is really interesting to know that people sold their houses and expecting they would by them back for thruppence, this is what I don't understand. I believe that house prices are not such that they will fluctuate so early they take their time.
So totally wrong decision as far as I am concerned.

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